A great deal has recently been stated regarding the latest coronavirus outbreak--dubbed 2019 nCoV--much of it hyperbole and hysteria, with one or two interesting exceptions.
2019 nCoV Outbreak Information
The recent 2019 nCoV outbreak has sparked intense discussion across the internet, with many conspiracy theories arising as a result, and large media outlets fanning the flames in many regards.
First and foremost are the numbers regarding infected and deceased as a result of the recent outbreak--numbers that pale in comparison to the current and ongoing outbreak of influenza across the United States, which are dwarfed by the influenza outbreak of 2017-2018.
Secondly, the risks, especially to those in the U.S., are infinitesimally low compared to China for several reasons, one of which appears to be too taboo to mention--the state and quality of the healthcare system.
Finally, the projected future of the 2019 nCoV coronavirus, how it may spread, how long it may stick around, and what we can learn from this.
2019 nCoV by the Numbers
Comparative facts tend to help one assess the scope and scale of a situation.
To that end, according to LiveScience;
There are now 15 confirmed U.S. cases.
[The] 13th confirmed U.S. case of the virus reported in person evacuated from Wuhan and accidentally released from a San Diego hospital.
About 60,349 confirmed coronavirus cases (primarily in mainland China), according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.
1,370 deaths linked to the virus. Deaths worldwide exceed those from SARS.
3 deaths have been linked to the virus outside of mainland China to date. Japan reported the country's first death from a confirmed case of COVID-19 on Feb. 13.
Coronavirus cases soar to 60,000-plus (Here's why): Live updates on 2019-nCoV
Conversely, the influenza outbreak in the U.S. has sickened tens of millions, resulting in the deaths of more than ten thousand.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC):
Pneumonia and influenza mortality has been low, but 78 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season.
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu.
Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on February 6, 2020, 7.1% of the deaths occurring during the week ending January 25, 2020 (week 4) were due to P&I.
This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 4.
The 2017-18 influenza outbreak in the U.S. killed 80,000 people--188 children--reaching epidemic levels over 10% P&I mortality for 11 straight weeks.
2019 nCoV Risk Factors
2019 nCoV is spread primarily through respiratory droplets, which means, for the most part, to get sick you have to be within six feet of someone with the illness.
Factors that have contributed to the rapid spread of the virus in Hubei Province include:
- Close human proximity to an animal market where the virus likely originated.
- Dense urban populations, and;
- An ailing, overburdened healthcare system.
According to Medical Xpress
Making the current outbreak worse is the state of the Chinese health system: overloaded, ineffective, expensive and chaotic.
While there have been some attempts to reform the Chinese health system, most were carried out in a haphazard fashion.
For example, in the aftermath of the Sars crisis, many public health units were reconfigured into local centers for disease control, but a systematic prevention program for infectious diseases remains absent.
As the political importance of Sars evaporated, money for research and prevention quickly dried out.
Meanwhile, the Chinese health system remains reactive rather than proactive.
It continues to fail stress tests and is unable to cope with major disease outbreaks.
Coronavirus: How health and politics have always been inextricably linked in China
Conversely, the U.S., which is at extremely low risk for an outbreak, had some time to prepare for the importation and arrival of those who were ill or displaying symptoms of the virus--successfully quarantining them--resulting in zero deaths thus far.
What the Future Holds
Two interesting points of information have emerged regarding the 2019 nCoV virus, specifically as it relates to two previous outbreaks--SARS and H1N1.
The first is that it appears, like SARS, 2019 nCoV can spread via bad plumbing.
According to CleanLink;
The spread of the virus through a building’s pipes has been a concern in other major outbreaks.
During the 2003 SARS outbreak, that virus was shown to have spread to more than 300 people dude to defective plumbing.
This current case might be a little different.
A preliminary investigation held this week suggested that the bathroom pipe in the second infected person’s apartment was shown to have been altered by someone at some point, perhaps making that a factor.
The second, and more concerning, is that 2019 nCoV, like H1N1, may be here to stay.
Citing another virus strain that ended up sticking around for longer than a year, some doctors say it's possible that the new Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) isn't just a 2019-2020 problem.
Doctors and researchers are looking to the 2019-nCoV stain and seeing a lot of similarities between it and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, reports USA Today.
These professionals find the similarities unfortunate because the H1N1 strain has had some staying power, though it hasn't been as brutal since it first came on the scene.
While pessimists can reference the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, optimists could counter by pointing to the 2003 strain of Coronavirus that caused SARS.
That strain was controlled to the point that it was stopped from spreading among humans.
However, Rachel Graham, a public health professor at the University of North Carolina cautions that SARS was easier to control.
2019 nCoV Prevention
Currently, there are no vaccines available to prevent COVID-2019 infections.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends typical infectious disease precautions, just as those used to prevent cold or flu:
- Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available.
- Avoid touching your mouth, nose, or eyes.
- Cover coughs/sneezes with your arm or a tissue.
- Avoid exposure to others who are sick.
- Stay home if you are ill (except to visit a health care professional) and avoid close contact with others.
- Get adequate sleep and eat well-balanced meals to ensure a healthy immune system.
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
The CDC does not routinely recommend the use of face masks by the general public to prevent respiratory illness and is not recommending their use at this time for the prevention of COVID-2019.
Source:
References & Resources
- Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says
- How can the coronavirus spread through bathroom pipes? Experts are investigating in Hong Kong
Takeaway
First and foremost, it is crucial to understand that the 2019 nCoV outbreak is a severe illness responsible for the deaths of more than 1,000 people.
The outbreak has identified significant flaws in how we address worldwide viral outbreaks, and we should consider ourselves fortunate that the virus is not more severe than it is.
While media hyperbole has been unhelpful, much of the concern can be attached to two facts:
- The virus essentially sprang up out of nowhere, having only previously infected animals, and;
- There is no vaccination.
However, what is being left out of mainstream conversations is that the spread of these types of outbreaks can be contained by:
- Adhering to standard hand hygiene practices recommended by the CDC.
- Observing quarantine procedures when an illness is suspected or symptoms are presented.
- Routinely disinfecting well-documented germ hotspots, and;
- Implementing high-performance cleaning and infection prevention measures in public facilities.
If you would like more information regarding the effectiveness of high-performance infection prevention and control measures, or if you would like to schedule a free, no-obligation onsite assessment of your facility's custodial needs, contact us today for a free quote!
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